In a recent article for Quartz, Karen Huo makes the claim that the future of transportation may focus on sharing batteries rather than cars. She makes this claim based on a company that manufacturers exchangeable batteries for motor scooters, and in a sense she's right. Batteries will play an exceptionally important role in our future transportation, but sharing batteries won't propel the future of transportation. Sharing standards is what will accelerate the future of transportation.
Battery barriers
Whether we own, lease or share them, the cars of the future will be powered by electricity, which means battery powered, so batteries are critical. However, there are a number of factors that the article overlooks or ignores that will block the near term growth of battery sharing. Weight and longevity are two important factors. A portable battery may be possible for a scooter, but not for a car. But the real barrier to sharing batteries is the real barrier future transportation shares broadly--a lack of standards.
While your ordinary flashlight uses "D" batteries in almost every country, automotive companies recognize that controlling the battery will be a key component in the value of the car. There are a number of companies working on battery powered and autonomous cars in countries as diverse as China, Germany and the US, and all recognize that the battery matters. For the battery to be exchangeable and sharable, all these companies would need to agree to a specific and universal standard, and the batteries would need to be manufactured to that standard everywhere and adopted by every car manufacturer. Currently there is little incentive to create a common battery standard. Today we can't even agree, country to country, on which side the steering column belongs!
Going deeper with standards
It goes deeper with standards, however. We are only scratching the surface to talk about the battery. The future of transportation is autonomous vehicles, which introduces new communication technologies and hopefully new standards. When cars need to talk to each other in an intersection, or communicate with the traffic grid, signals or GPS, they need to do so quickly and completely. This demonstrates a need for more consistent, common communication protocols. Cities, counties and governments aren't likely to abide by many different communication systems used by many different car manufacturers. Just as every airplane in the sky is communicating to air traffic control using the same jargon and terminology (and in most cases English), all of the vehicles on the ground need a common communication platform--in other words, a standard.
First the standard, then the platform
This standards conundrum is a familiar one for innovators. Building a really robust platform (iTunes for example) doesn't happen until someone creates a standard (MP3) that demonstrates value and longevity. In the short run we'll see the classic VHS versus Betamax battle, and one battery company or technology will win out. But that is only one standard in a mounting pyramid of standards that will be required, because the risks are much higher when we think about cars than when we think about portable music.
The more risk increases, the more complexity increases, the more standards and regulation is required. Understanding this helps to determine where and when to innovate. There often isn't much return in creating a standard. JVC published the VHS standard at no cost to encourage tape manufacturers, and the MP3 standard is also freely available. The real value is creating innovation and platforms that leverage the standards. We'll see some consolidation in standards for batteries, navigation systems, communication systems and regulatory compliance before we see the future of transportation fully realize.
The more risk increases, the more complexity increases, the more standards and regulation is required. Understanding this helps to determine where and when to innovate. There often isn't much return in creating a standard. JVC published the VHS standard at no cost to encourage tape manufacturers, and the MP3 standard is also freely available. The real value is creating innovation and platforms that leverage the standards. We'll see some consolidation in standards for batteries, navigation systems, communication systems and regulatory compliance before we see the future of transportation fully realize.
